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Are Patterns Emerging?

The Million-Dollar Leader Question Remains the Same

by Andy Moderow

03/08/2006

Iditarod XXXIV has seen the return of 14 out of the top 15 mushers in Iditarod XXXIII, producing what could arguably be the toughest race for the front in Iditarod history. With Doug Swingley taking an apparent lead on Day 4 of Iditarod XXXIV, and with 9 of the top 14 returning mushers taking hold of positions in the top 15 today, it seems that race leaders may be emerging. Yet a closer evaluation of the statistics reveals that, of the 4 mushers who placed the highest last year, only one has secured a spot in the top 15 as of noon today. Is this a sign that assuming too much from current race standings is still premature, as I noted yesterday in ‘Who is in the Lead?’

One possible explanation for why the fastest teams from last year are hanging back may be that they believe the front of the pack is traveling too fast, at speeds they can’t maintain. A counter argument to this idea is that teams took three hours longer to reach the checkpoint of Nikolai this year than they did last year. Making this argument assumes that you can easily compare two Iditarods: History has shown that each year is different. With so many factors to take into account, from equipment improvements, trail conditions and weather factors, it is hard to claim much from this slightly slower pace.

Another possibility is that the teams who ran fastest last year aren’t faring as well this year, because of some hard to pin down factor: For instance, their teams could be better suited for the trail conditions and weather met in 2005. Evaluating the top 15 teams through Nikolai in the 2005 race, 13 of the 15 ended up in the top 15 when they reached Nome: Will the same hold this year? Curiously, the two teams who were in the top 15 but eventually fell out last year were also in the top 15 traveling through Nikolai this year: John and Jason Barron left Nikolai in 6th and 7th place this year, respectively, in slightly higher positions this year than last. Is this observation another sign that the names in the front now are the names we’ll see finishing first?

With more questions than answers, one thing is certain: Only time will tell.